Months of Inventory

MOI - VREB inventory increased again - 08/05/08

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Another "Months Of Inventory" (MOI) snapshot, based on MLS searches done May 8, 2008, compared to the April 2008 VREB numbers.

 

The total number of condos for sale on the MLS (1099) has increased quite a bit since May 1, 2008.

 

More townhouses (416) are available. More single family homes (1192). The MOI for sub-median single family homes has even increased a bit, to 2 months or so. The fact this "most affordable" sector of the single family market is actually building inventory instead of shedding or absorbing it is an interesting signal, but does it actually mean anything?

 

MOI - a bit more VREB inventory - 01/05/08

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A new "Months Of Inventory" (MOI) snapshot, based on MLS searches done May 1, 2008, and the April 2008 VREB numbers.

 

Along with the higher median single family home prices in the month of April, inventory is up in all segments. Meanwhile, the median prices of condos and townhouses have fallen a bit, and sales in these segments are not on pace with those of 2007.

Recent Videos

Peter Schiff Says Dollar Fall Down, Go BOOM

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Cheaprealty presents:

Peter calls a recession "necessary medicine", to put the US economy back on course.

 

The Fox host tries to float the idea that all the recent media talk about a recession is worsening the situation, as Americans become more aware and cautious about what is happening.

 

Peter has another point of view, he says the main reason for a recession is, Americans are broke!  They borrowed and spent like there was no tomorrow, and now the chickens are coming home to roost.

 

Thank goodness someone like Peter Schiff is able to get on these shows and state the obvious.  Too bad more people weren't paying attention a couple years ago.

 

Which brings up a related point, I wonder if people here in Canada are paying attention? 

Interview with Robert J. Shiller Parts 1 & 2

Cheaprealty presents:

These two wide ranging interviews cover the psychological elements of the credit crisis, as well as the new interconnections between nations that are causing the crisis to travel around the globe. Some ideas about damage mitigation are explored. Robert Shiller argues in favour of a bail-out, but one with long term vision that will not result in a pattern of future bail outs - a bigger new deal, that will smooth over these troubles. Problems like the securitization and the lending with adjustable mortgages to people who couldn't afford the adjustments - to prevent future problems, people should get disinterested financial advice that could prevent similar problems from developing.

Sky Report on Housing and Credit Crunch

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Cheaprealty presents:

Housing and the British economy - interlinked.

US inventory could cause continued weakness in US house prices. What about Victoria inventory?

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Here is a story by Charles Hugh Smith that counter argues against a bottom being reached yet in the US Housing market, and how overly-optimistic predictions about absorption of existing inventory could be wrong.

 

If they are, it means inventory will continue to pressure housing prices lower for years to come. The idea that the Canadian housing market can successfully escape any influence from this declining market seems unlikely.

 

Home prices plunge 13% in a year.

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Home prices slumped almost 13% year over year, according to this story on the Standard & Poor's/Case-Shiller index of prices in 20 major cities, which also showed a 14th consecutive month of declines.

 

What would a slump like that look like in Victoria? Bidding $425,000 on $500,000 properties, and the seller is grateful for the bid?

 

Something like that.

Is a soft landing possible in Canada?

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Before being completely discredited by the subsequent turn of events,
many industry experts, economists and commentators floated the idea
that US housing prices would moderate a bit, eventually bringing prices
back into line with other economic fundamentals over time. This was the
widely quoted "soft landing" theory of the US Housing Market.

At wikipedia, the following definition for a soft landing is provided:





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