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cool pic greg, that is alot of condos for sale. Once we see the media actually have the nerve to write up this glut then this puppy should start to unravel.

I found it interesting the media playing the "new home" versus "this old house" play last week trying to peg one as the one to focus on. I sense the agent had a serious interest in the development to promote new above old like that. She was a prominent agent in town too so I was surprised she would take such a stance.

I agree VG, as a poster on another blog said, there is a ton of new construction inventory that does not even show up in these MLS stats. To my mind, that is not a positive market condition for people trying to sell older condos. Throw in high prices all around, and a bulk of people listing above the median, it looks to me like a storm is brewing. I seriously doubt that anyone interested in new construction is interested in some of the older units - it is like comparing apples and oranges - if you want new, there is a lot of new coming - and if you are selling old, how do you market yourself to out of town buyers who want new condos? Catch 22 there.

I tend to think that a lot of these older MLS listed condos will ultimately be bought by local buyers at prices local buyers can afford.

Every previous correction started with rapidly rising condo inventory, and it looks to me like condo inventory is rising rapidly - that was the point of several of my own recent posts.

And as a poster on another blog pointed out, there could be a lot of pre-sale inventory that is out there in that isn't included in these increasing MLS numbers.

I had a friend who bought a condo in Victoria last year on an "pay the interest only for the first 2 years.I told her to start reading Patrick.net and others but she said"it's different here"

Looks like she "bought" at the wrong time.

Hopefully her interest payments are less than rent,so it's not a complete loss.

When you see an expontential curve on real estate price graphs,anyone with basic math knows it is un-sustainable,unfortunately my ex-friend wouldn't know an exponential curve if it ran her over.

Greg,

Thought I would drop by and say hello. It is getting a little heated over on the other blogs.

You are right about condos leading the way down. Not only are there a lot of them but they are too small to retire in. I am a boomer and a 960 sq. ft. condo with 2 bedrooms doesn't cut it as a full time home. Many retirees want 2BR + den (hobbies or computer). 2 BR+den is rare in Victoria but very common in other cities.

We will have to see what the coming months. People want the market to drop NOW but it will take time and PATIENCE. It will take a few months until we get into the peak selling season and the sales get large enough to have statistically meaningful median and average numbers. Elevator down - all aboard!!

Roger, I agree with you, but as vg mentioned, when it turned, it happened fast in 82, and in the US it all turned in around 6 months summer through fall of 2006.  So I think if you see big inventories of unsold condos by late spring, the bull run is over, regardless of what anyone else wants to post or believe. 

I am looking forward to the January VREB numbers - I predict some big drops in median prices for condos and SFH - let's see if I'm right.

Greg, if we take that 944 number and divide it into the total sales of condos in 2007, it only works out to just under 5 months supply. I know the total on MLS doesn't reflect the real total. But is this number really that high? I agree there appears to be a glut of condos, especially at the high end, but on my pcs which shows condos under $250K, the crap is still selling and fairly fast too...

Greg,

I am a bit concerned about the January stats. It is the second lowest month for sales (after December) and any high end sales tend to distort the average sales stat more than they do in April, May etc.

Anything could happen this month and if the average goes up from 636K the MSM and VREB will pump this flaky stat for all that it is worth. This may result in buyer panic to get in "before it is too late". However, if it goes down they will soft pedal it with some "seasonal adjustment" nonsense.

Hey hhv,

thanks for posting, anyway, if you look at a graph from last year when I was tracking MLS stats, inventory in January for condos was only in the 700 range.

While 940 units might be around 5 months of 2007 inventory, last year was a brisk one for sales, if they drop off, that months of inventory number skews higher.

Also, as the graph shows, inventory inevitably goes up - how many months of inventory will there be by the summer, particularly as some of the large condo towers finish and the presales get flipped out into the market?

You're right, the cheaper stuff is selling, but what does that tell you about the market?  Are rich foreigners buying, or locals with local incomes?

When over 2/3s of the condo listings are priced above the median, either prices have to rise sharply along with sales, or stuff won't sell until prices drop back into the affordable range. 

Roger -

I think buyer panic is overrated. Now in the market you really only have those trading up or with very high incomes or very large downpayments - nobody new is entering the market - I think for the average person with 10% down, property is pretty much beyond reach, so any attempt to panic people into buying is not going to be that effective.

Besides, while bears might get fatigued, that doesn't make their incomes go up. The last few years the MSM has been trumpeting the story of the rich out of town buyer. What's left if they can't do the trick?

Greg,

You should take a look at the Victoria December 2007 stats at http://www.relocationbc.com/statistics-victoria.asp

The first 15 pages are the standard stuff but the last three pages are a detailed breakdown of condo, townhouse and SFH sales by area. The condo breakdown shows you where those new ones are selling or not selling.

VG,

Thought I would see if you are around on this blog. Things got a little wacky on the other blogs and I wanted to see if you switched here to comment. Jan Stats will be out soon and I am interested in your perspective.

hey roger, yes I posted about 5 posts up. I had a longer post here but I somehow delted it before I could hit the send button.

Best I take a break from the big boards, I think I have stirred it up enough for abit now. ;)

Agree on the condos being the focus here,they are the FTB and the tourist buyer so if they tank then that means the food chain has ceased and the recession is chasing away our outside buyers.

I wouldn't be surprised to see January numbers hold if the high end buyers are still there. It is so eerily similar to 82 the only thing missing is the high interest rates but we can replace that with the potential recession.

I went on mls.ca and I tabulated 1269 condos for sale in the Victoria area.

I just got an update via PCS

This condo in the Juliet MLS 235392 was orginially listed at 459K. A while ago the price dropped to 429K. Todays reduced price is now 409K after 145 days on the market.

I guess a 2 bedroom, 753 sq. ft. box is not so hot right now.

hi roger, I'm here but my posts don't seem to be showing up or I can't access them somehow....we will see if this one makes it.

hi roger, I'm here, I will see if this message makes it,not sure why my other posts aren't making it.

Says $429k there.

Curious if people are able to view these comments easily or not? Maybe I have not set the anonymous permissions properly, or maybe the site is not responding properly. I was using page caching, which I have now turned off. Did that help? I will try to solve this performance issue as soon as possible.

Yes the property is listed as 429K on MLS.CA They only update the database every day or so. My PCS just released an update at 409K but I do not have the ability to provide a link for public access. Check MLS in a day or so.

Folks - as VG likes to say: "Look out below"

I see 19 comments and can read all 19

test

it seems to be working now greg, I can read my older 2 posts now and the test one, that must have been the problem, lets see if I can do 2 for 2.

wow, $459,000 down to $409 ? you got it roger,way down, 10% is a nice start. :)

that makes up for the frustration of driving by that place the last couple of weeks and they have one or two of the 3 lanes blocked,talk about screwing up the downtown traffic.

I still don't get the location factor there,crappy part of downtown for an overpriced condo....you must have a nice view of the new homeless shelter on Pandora though. ;)

was that TC article not the biggest joke you have ever read in the TC ? the more I read it the harder I laughed. 73 hits from Americans and they are salivating. LOL

roger,

maybe you should send her the link to the Allen Angell interview. The small town reporter may get a wake up call. I would send it but I'm not that skilled with the cut job that HHV posted.

I used to know that Bear Mountain guy when I was a kid so I will reserve judgement. ;)

To keep things in perspective, Allan Angell an independent owner/broker in West Vancouver/British Properties, so when he talks about shaving prices, those prices are already extremely high and inflated.

However, his comments are a good barometer for the top of the market in Vancouver, and does anyone really think the top of the market is going to do well in Victoria once Vancouver starts tanking?

Rob Chipman has dropped the occasional bearish comments at his blog lately as well.

Once the market in Vancouver turns, and the condo speculators there get crushed, we'll see how different Victoria really is....

good points greg, I figured he meant the overpriced mansions but it is a good baromter as you say. When the big money stops finally buying in Vancouver the game is over and I sense that time is near.

I haven't had the stomach to read Chipmans blog for many months now as he so full of himself. It is interesting to note that though as we will see how true to his ethics he is to actually spill the truth when it arrives.