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Vancouver realtor Ian Watt gets worked up about a buyer who had a bunch of realtors working for him.  Do you agree that a buyer owes any loyalty to his or her realtor?

This "Months Of Inventory" (MOI) snapshot was based on MLS searches done for the VREB area on May 29, 2008.

Inventory continues to go up, but it took a pretty big jump in the condo market in the last few days. Compared to my search on May 26, 2008, there are around 75 more condos listed. That seems a lot to add in just a few days, unless perhaps projects completing are starting to flood the market, in which case maybe this is the beginning of a condo glut.

Interestingly, going back to a search 2 months ago, townhouse inventory is not up as much as the other segments. While townhouse listings have increased from around 350 to around 400 listed units, condos have shot up from 1078 to 1254 and houses have increased from 1078 to 1323.

Million dollar plus property inventory increased to 316. Even with the higher monthly sales in April, this is approaching a year of high priced inventory. Ouch!

Predictions for the VREB numbers for May out early next week? The median should drop again to below $530,000, as will the average sales price, it should drop below $600,000 - there doesn't seem to be enough sales activity to continue a feel good spring for Victoria real estate spin. Condos should see lower average and medians again this month, and townhouses should hold steady.

Just guessing of course. Stay tuned, I'll take another look in early June.

Nouriel Roubini is downbeat but as convincing as ever. Check this out.

This "Months Of Inventory" (MOI) snapshot was based on VREB area MLS searches done on May 26, 2008. Inventory is up a bit more since the last search I did on May 22, 2008.  Any guesses on how sales are doing this month?  Have the bears all capitulated and started buying?  Have the out of town buyers disappeared?  Is Bear Mountain phase whatever sold out?  Are townhouses a deal?  Are condos a rip off?  Stay tuned, the market will let us know in about, oh, 3-4 months time.

According to Investopedia, a paper millionaire is defined as a high net worth individual as a result of the large total market value of the assets they own, despite not yet actually realizing any gains, because the investments involved have not been liquidated (yet). While holding such assets creates a large amount of "paper profit", the paper millionaire's riches aren't safe, if they fail to liquidate the assets involved at an opportune time.

Okay, to the point, there are now more than 300 paper millionaires in Victoria. That's how many million dollar plus properties are listed for sale right now. There are probably loads of other millionaires, and loads of people who could sell fantastic Victoria properties for a million dollars, but the three hundred referred to here are the group who are trying to cash out right now. If they all manage to cash out as expected, they're all millionaires (at least until they pay whatever other debts they owe).

But are all these potential paper millionaires ever really going to see the money? There are a lot of very saleable properties in Victoria, but how many local buyers can afford or want to buy all those properties right now? Are enough of us trading spaces, swapping up the food chain to let the top dogs all cash out?

If these wonderful properties are not all bought, what sort of adjustment process will sellers have to go through? Can they all afford to wait for a sale? A funny question to ask a near millionaire, but there it is. Can you afford to wait? And if you can, for how long? There is around an 11 month supply of such homes at the moment. What if you need some money right now?

And what happens to sellers if they don't get the money they expect? Will some of these guys or gals be able to handle never receiving the millions they thought they deserved? Hundreds of thousands just isn't the same. Can any of the 300 absorb an ego hit like that? What if they took out home equity loans from the Bank of Montreal or RBC or Scotiabank or TD and can't pay back it all without receiving the expected hefty property windfall?

What is the best exit strategy for might not be richer than you think property paper millionaires in a falling market?

Maybe nobody else cares about them, but at Cheaprealty, we just wanted to offer a little sympathy during these potentially trying times. Good luck, we can always count on Alberta buyers, Americans and Saudi Oil Sheikhs to take care of these small problems.

This is from the end of April, just saw it. Roubini said this will be one of the most severe recessions in decades. What do you think?

"Billionaire hedge fund manager George Soros says Ronald Reagan is to blame for the credit crisis and that the Bush administration is not doing enough to stop rising foreclosures."

Ah, how refreshing, a billionaire who blames the establishment.

This "Months Of Inventory" (MOI) snapshot was based on VREB area MLS searches done on May 22, 2008. Townhouse inventory fell a bit, while condo inventory seems to be getting cheaper and there are more single family homes than a couple days ago.

A realtor on another blog told me that months of inventory may correlate with a downturn but can't be considered as the cause in the event of a downturn.  If inventory keeps going up, what do you think?

This "Months Of Inventory" (MOI) snapshot was based on VREB area MLS searches done on May 19, 2008. As noted in a comment, it appears numbers on the previous graph may have been low compared to what Roger found. This search seems more in line with other recent searches.

On another note, here's an interesting recent interview with Robert Shiller at portfolio.com.

This "Months Of Inventory" (MOI) snapshot was based on VREB area MLS searches on May 16, 2008.

Extract from TVNZ's 'Close Up' current affairs show hosted by Mark Sainsbury on May 13, featuring Olly Newland. Has the property market crashed or is it just a media beat up?

This "Months Of Inventory" (MOI) snapshot was based on MLS searches done for the VREB area on May 13, 2008.

There were 1237 single family homes listed at the moment.

The sub-median single family homes inventory increased a bit more. The "most affordable" sector of the single family market continues building inventory instead of shedding it.

Million dollar plus property inventory increased again. Today there were 301 such properties listed.

Blogs are talking about recessions and inflation and popping bubbles. Is the global economic slowdown starting to take effect yet in the Victoria real estate market? Have the last of the first time buyers and hardiest of the foreign investors finally been knocked out of the picture?

What's next?

This piece shows what happens to the uninhabited shells after foreclosures move families out. Basically, everything gets trashed, and even when it looks nice on the outside, it can get pretty nasty when people are staying somewhere with the power turned off and none of the facilities working.

Some enterprising squatters are even cleaning places up, changing the locks and renting them out. By the time the banks find out, months could have gone by. And what do banks do about it? Maybe nothing.

Anyone who thinks overbuilding isn't a problem should watch this video. Do city planners make choices that could avoid these kinds of problems?

Another "Months Of Inventory" (MOI) snapshot, based on MLS searches done May 8, 2008, compared to the April 2008 VREB numbers.

The total number of condos for sale on the MLS (1099) has increased quite a bit since May 1, 2008.

More townhouses (416) are available. More single family homes (1192). The MOI for sub-median single family homes has even increased a bit, to 2 months or so. The fact this "most affordable" sector of the single family market is actually building inventory instead of shedding or absorbing it is an interesting signal, but does it actually mean anything?

Interestingly, million dollar inventory has decreased a bit even though overall inventory is still increasing. Is this a sign that some of the more expensive properties are dropping prices? Maybe. Today there were 291 such properties listed, compared to the 300 such properties listed on May 1, 2008. This takes the months of inventory on expensive properties down just a bit.

Is the global economic slowdown starting to take effect now, or is this just a breather before a busy summer for the local market? Have the last of the first time buyers and hardiest of the foreign investors finally been knocked out of the picture?

Seems some condo projects are falling behind or can't get off the ground. Why is that?

Is it over?

Peter calls a recession "necessary medicine", to put the US economy back on course.

The Fox host tries to float the idea that all the recent media talk about a recession is worsening the situation, as Americans become more aware and cautious about what is happening.

Peter has another point of view, he says the main reason for a recession is, Americans are broke!  They borrowed and spent like there was no tomorrow, and now the chickens are coming home to roost.

Thank goodness someone like Peter Schiff is able to get on these shows and state the obvious.  Too bad more people weren't paying attention a couple years ago.

Which brings up a related point, I wonder if people here in Canada are paying attention? 

Here is a story by Charles Hugh Smith that counter argues against a bottom being reached yet in the US Housing market, and how overly-optimistic predictions about absorption of existing inventory could be wrong.

If they are, it means inventory will continue to pressure housing prices lower for years to come. The idea that the Canadian housing market can successfully escape any influence from this declining market seems unlikely.

Are people in Victoria still sure that the market will be up next year and now is a good time to buy? Victoria Real Estate Board numbers from April don't seem to support that, in particular, the amount of inventory that is now appearing on the market, seems to be signalling a similar direction for the local market. As usual, the lag effect has been at work, but 2008 is the year that the reversal of the local market is becoming obvious.

Agree or disagree?

A new "Months Of Inventory" (MOI) snapshot, based on MLS searches done May 1, 2008, and the April 2008 VREB numbers.

Along with the higher median single family home prices in the month of April, inventory is up in all segments. Meanwhile, the median prices of condos and townhouses have fallen a bit, and sales in these segments are not on pace with those of 2007.

The total number of condos for sale on the MLS (1025) has increased a bit since April 27, 2008.

More townhouses (408) are also available.

Million dollar plus inventory is stable - there were 300 such properties for sale in the area on May 1, 2008. Sales of expensive properties picked up in the past month, reducing the total of this expensive inventory to a relatively "tight" 10 months of inventory.... 10 months might seem like a long time, but this is better than it looked when calculating months of inventory based on the performance in March.

However, looking at the active listings chart, things are still unwinding, because while prices are higher, the inventory is on a straight upward march, with no slow down in sight.

Are some sellers going to get frustrated and drop prices soon? Anecdotally, some of this is happening and can be seen when looking at the information on the Private Client Service (PCS) listings.

Stay tuned for further updates.