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Okay, perhaps nobody else has gotten tired of this, but it's something I couldn't help noticing about MSM coverage of our housing market. First, the obvious: constant references to how the market is returning to a more balanced state, which is better for buyers and sellers. How is it better? Supposedly a moderation of price increases that were starting to make the whole market unaffordable. The increase of listings is good because it means there is more choice after several years with frenzied activity.

However, what is this balance, really? Is housing more affordable? No, it's clear that its not. What's the one thing that would make it more affordable?

Umm, yeah, lower prices.

Does the MSM foresee lower prices in the near future? Of course not, instead, they look forward to a cooling of the red hot market and a continuation of single digit annual price gains.

This "Months Of Inventory" (MOI) snapshot was based on MLS searches done for the VREB area on June 27, 2008.

What a difference a couple of days make. Big jumps in the listings, to test the theroy of Dave from the previous MOI entry that listings are starting to stall.

Single family home listings reached a total over 1012 above the median and 1437 over all. Condo inventory increased slightly to 1261 total.

There are now 356 million dollar plus properties listed. That's 14.83 months of inventory. Balance that!

They try to tell people to get into dropping markets, because they might be bottoming out.  Why?  What's the hurry?  Even if they bottom out, does anyone expect these bombed out US markets (Miami, Vegas, Phoenix etc) to come right back up like a yo-yo or something?  I doubt it....

Ignore the feel good spin, concentrate on the facts off the top of the show.  Including some obligatory and off-putting rumours of war...

This "Months Of Inventory" (MOI) snapshot was based on MLS searches done for the VREB area on June 25, 2008.

In general, inventory is still incrementally increasing, compared to my last VREB area search on June 20, 2008.

This graph says it all, comparing last May (HOT) with this year (not). Looking at the graph, sales volumes were much higher in the lower price ranges a year ago. This year, houses are not listing and selling in those same price ranges, maybe because specuvestors think their houses are worth much more after owning for a whole year - time enough for a profitable flip, right? Looking at the price brackets where sales were a year ago, is it any wonder the Okanagan real estate market is in a tailspin now? All the affordable properties are gone. Or have been delusionally listed way too high. Bring them back down for the second half of 2008 into 2009, and maybe the market could revive a bit.

Ozzie mentions with affordable US resort destinations now competing for Canadian recreational buyers, and the strong Canadian dollar, it's only a matter of time until prices in BC start to come down.  A drop in buyers around the province and an increase in listings makes this inevitable.

This "Months Of Inventory" (MOI) snapshot was based on MLS searches done for the VREB area on June 20, 2008.

There was another jump in single family home listings. Maybe everybody is planning on selling this weekend and decided to get that house on the market quick. Condos did something unusual - they actually decreased above the median slightly. Of course, there are still 10 plus months of above median condo inventory on the market, but I guess that's better than another incremental increase - an incremental decrease!

There are now more than 344 million dollar plus properties listed, while only 24 such properties sold last month in the VREB area. Yikes, more than 14 months of expensive inventory with no sign of Alberta moneybags anywhere.

A twist on a situation where the soundtrack should be courtesy of the Talking Heads:"Burning Down the House".

"Broke, facing foreclosure?  Don't worry, call Vinny... for $10,000 up front, your problems could be over.... and you can sleep well in that new cheaper house...."

This "Months Of Inventory" (MOI) snapshot was based on MLS searches done for the VREB area on June 16, 2008.

As usual, there are more single family homes and condos listed since the last time I did a search on June 6, 2008. In fact, there are more of everything, including an incredible 14 months of million $ plus inventory.

We can thank CREA for announcing today that inventory is increasing, while dollar volume and unit sales are dropping throughout BC.

Of course, average prices are still somehow maintained. For how much longer?

This video is making the point that urban living is cheaper than suburban living - but with expensive gas prices - big mortgages don't make sense.

Are people with expensive houses in Sooke and Langford taking notes?

This "Months Of Inventory" (MOI) snapshot was based on MLS searches done for the VREB area on June 6, 2008.

There are more single family homes and condos listed since the last time I did a search on June 3, 2008.

There are more than 10 months of above median condo inventory, and more than seven months of condo inventory over all.

As usual, the months of million dollar plus inventory just keep chugging higher over 13.5 months at most recent count.

Wouldn't want to be trying to unload a million dollar condo right now...

Ozzie says Vancouver prices are untenable. Ozzie spins like a weather vane. Ozzie mentions people trying to unload presale assignments on Craigslist. Check here for a sample. Meet Ozzie the Bear, he calls for price drops, but explains it's "not the end of the world". What's next, Rob Chipman sound bites?

These people need to call Patrick Killelea.

One of the neat things about running your own web-site is the opportunity to exam your site logs and see where visitors arrive from. For the most part, I watch the logs to block various web-sites from linking or otherwise polluting this web-site with spam. Sometimes when checking the logs other interesting stuff appears.

Anyway, today my site started getting a lot of hits from the forums at Castanet, which is billed as the Okanagan's Discussion Forum. Checking the links, I found a very interesting discussion about "Popping Kelowna's Housing Bubble: The Canadian Credit Crunch". The topic has now reached 2396 posts and 160 pages since December 2007. The link is here.

Middle class foreclosures are making people homeless in Santa Barbara.  Safe parking programs are making it possible for the growing numbers of car campers to sleep in relative peace.

This "Months Of Inventory" (MOI) snapshot was
based on MLS searches done for the VREB area on June 3, 2008.

This is the first table based on the May adjustments to the sales numbers. They
don't do a lot to improve the situation for anyone hoping for better looking
numbers. The goal posts moved a bit lower, increasing the number of single
family homes available above the median, and compared to my last search on May 29,
2008, there are fewer condos listed.

Well, the month of May 2008 was nothing special in terms of the local property market. Prices are not collapsing (yet), but inventory is shooting way up and sales are treading water. Take a look at the accompanying VREB graph, it shows just what's happening with inventory, which is on a steep upward trajectory into territory never seen before during the bull run of the last 6-7 years.

Fewer million dollar plus properties sold, leading to a situation where there are now 13.63 months of million dollar plus inventory. As of today, there are 327 such properties of all types listed, while only 24 such properties sold in the last month.

Sales of single family homes and condos refuse to take off, despite the so called low unemployment, excellent wages and low mortgage rates touted by the real estate industry as supports for the current boom.