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12 million households now have mortgages bigger than their homes are worth, and people with reasonable mortgages are now part of a second wave of foreclosures brought on by job losses.

If only this bubble never happened and all that ill-gotten wealth wasn't blown on flat screen TVs and SUVs.  Too late for that now though.

Ian thinks 50% low ball offers aren't going to work in the luxury Vancouver market - it's just too low.  Ian says Vancouver's not like New York and San Francisco and those other places that are correcting.

50% off?  Not yet.  But more to the point, what would be a cagy starting point for low Vancouver offers?  10% off?  20% off?  30% off?  And whatever discount makes sense now, where is it going to get to in another two years?

That Dubai guy might just have to wait a couple more years, Ian.  50% off takes us back to where this bubble all began, and Vancouver is one of the bubbliest cities around.

Comments?

This "Months Of Inventory" (MOI) snapshot was based on realtor.ca searches done for the VREB area on November 27, 2008.

Single family home listings total 1426. Condo inventory is at 1194. 
There are 442 townhouses available along with 314 million dollar plus
properties.

We are starting to see some big price drops of $50,000 or more on some
MLS listings; I guess days on market without offers and realtors
without commissions is helping some sellers sharpen their pencils.

There is still way too much expensive inventory.  Considering the
economic situation around the world, the fact that more than two thirds
of Victoria properties continue to be available above the median tells me the market still has a long
way to fall.  Buyers are tapped out.  Without the first time buyers and
the mover on uppers, this market is stagnant.

November 2008: was it fair to say that November was the worst month for Victoria area real estate (ever)?  Remember this op-ed piece, er, advertorial published in the Times Colonist on November 8, that said the local market was still strong?  Or this fluff from Duncan that announced there was no housing bubble to slow down local mortgage financing?  Reading the comments from astute local readers, it certainly seems like the general public is catching on to what's happening.

Peter calls a run on the dollar next... 11/20/2008.

Roubini talks about a hard landing as bad as the 70s-80s maybe worse.  Unemployment to 9%.  Consumption is falling and a call of at least another 15% drop in US housing.

Good point - lowering fed interest rates is not being passed along on the market rates - which needs to happen for there to be any positive effect.

Roubini calls for a new new deal, absolutely.

Listening to Roubini, can we really think housing in Victoria can hold out much longer?

And Nouriel calls for much higher interest rates....

Realtor asks why not buy when everyone else is selling?

Easy, 'cause prices are still going down.

Includes some illuminating comments from Alan Angell about the state of the West Vancouver market, a market full of rich people.  If all these rich people are so desperate to sell, what do you think that says about where those sellers think the market is going?

"This is a frustrating market for sellers..."

Not as frustrating as it is for real estate agents...  No sale = no commission.

Boo hoo in West Vancouver, the rich can't afford to move...  boo hoo!

Comments?

This "Months Of Inventory" (MOI) snapshot was based on realtor.ca searches done for the VREB area on November 21, 2008.

Single family home listings total 1435. Condo inventory is at 1202.  There are 451 townhouses available along with 315 million dollar plus properties.

It looks like the seasonal drop off of inventory in the late fall/Christmas season might be starting.  Usually there is a big drop off near the end of the year, before listings rebound in early January.  It will be interesting to see how that plays out.  will lots of listings expire and not be re-listed, or will we see even higher inventory heading into next spring.  That will play a big part in whether the dropping prices find a level of support or drop even farther, faster.

Thanks GreenhornRET.

This "Months Of Inventory" (MOI) snapshot was based on MLS searches done for the VREB area on November 14, 2008.

Single family home listings total 1445. Condo inventory is at 1212.  There are 442 townhouses available along with 323 million dollar plus properties.

Based on October sales, the total MOI for the VREB area is now 11.48 months.

The drop-off in sales of single family homes appears quite stark compared to previous months. 

Above a million dollars, only 2% of the properties available sold last month.

This appears to be a continuing trend.

For comparison, check out the last inventory search here. 

From: jurockvideo.

A confession of sorts, I made an offer on a property in Fernwood a little while ago that was refused. The realtor for the sellers made the comment that the offer was an “insult” to the sellers.

Why did I decide to do this so early in the market correction? Well, I looked at the listing price and made an offer 10% below that price. I wanted at least a 10% off sale.

I also paid some attention to some advice my sister gave me, which is that no matter what the price, you don’t find a place that works for you all that often. When you do, pay attention to that fact. So I did.

Rather than following the market down and making offers, I decided to help the market along on its way.

Friends at the time expressed relief that the offer was refused, the refrain being basically, “You’ll do much better later on, Greg, prices are still dropping fast. Don’t buy! For that price, you’ll be in Fairfield next spring.”

This "Months Of Inventory" (MOI) snapshot was based on MLS searches done for the VREB area on November 5, 2008.

Single family home listings total 1420. Condo inventory is at 1234.  There are 438 townhouses available along with 326 million dollar plus properties.

Kucinich: "When did you know about the housing bubble and when
did you tell the public about it... could you answer the question!"

I can't believe it, scapegoating of the ex Fed chairman.  As if his pronouncements, rather than the actions of industry or commerce, were responsible for the state of the market.

Was it really up to Greenspan to prevent a housing bubble?  Was it really his decision to lower rates to historic lows that helped stoke the mortgage lending?