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Prices are falling everywhere -  a breakdown of the current numbers and whether the bottom is anywhere in sight.  Emphasis on the problems in Florida, California, Nevada and Arizona, and how they are driving the aggregate numbers for the whole country lower.

Thanks chachiarkola.

This "Months Of Inventory" (MOI) snapshot was based on MLS searches done for the VREB area on December 30, 2008.

There were 1197 single family home, 1047 condos and 369 townhouses available.  At the top of the market, there are still 263 million dollar plus properties listed.

Thanks to Roger, I was able to look at the detailed VREB report for November 2008 a few weeks ago, and finally got an answer to my speculations about the number of million dollar plus listings.  Only 2 sold in November - and one of the sales was in the gulf islands.

Just a short post to ask the question everyone can't wait to answer.  Okay, depending on your point of view, probably 50% of the public would rather wait a long time before getting the answers to the upcoming questions of 2009.  For myself, I'm curious to see if my expectations of the market will match up with the actual events of 2009.  My expectations for 2008 were not spot on, and this year will probably see more of the same unpredicatbility that has made real estate watching such an interesting pastime.

Check out some real estate commentators.  They start out with the old "Is it time to buy or sell?" question.  Then they proceed to put some body blows on prospective sellers, to soften them up for aggressive pricing in the spring.  'Cause no sales = no commissions.  Industry spin?  Maybe, but it's interesting to see the industry turning on the same sellers who were encouraged to list higher and higher when money was free.  Now the pendulum has swung back and its time to soften up the sellers and knock those sugar plum fairies out of their heads.

Sorta slick.  Thanks kellerwilliams.

Merry Christmas.  Hope everyone is enjoying a relaxing Christmas and enjoying the snow.  Here's hoping for a happy new year with lower prices and more selection.

"The Miami grassroots group Take Back the Land has launched a campaign to help some of the victims of the foreclosure crisis. The group has been helping homeless families illegally move into vacant homes that have been foreclosed."

- press release

Food for thought, which right trumps, property rights or the right to shelter?  The aftermath of a housing crash, these questions become relevant.

This "Months Of Inventory" (MOI) snapshot was based on MLS searches done for the VREB area on December 18, 2008.

There were 1266 single family home listed today. There were 1073 condos and 388 townhouses available, along with 281 million dollar plus properties.  

Seems like the seasonal low point where all the old listings expire is upon us.  The interesting thing is that, even at this low point, there are still way more properties listed than when the spring season last year was well underway.  Check out the numbers from last March.  Sales were higher at that time, too.  Unfortunately for sellers, it looks like next year's selling season is going to start with a bumper crop of stale listings.

Private demand is collapsing.  Nouriel continues to advocate for a Keynesian policy of government stimulus.  I think I agree.

Nouriel also draws attention to the discrepancy between the bail outs to insolvent financial corporations and the much smaller size of the bail outs to the auto sector.

In a more hopeful twist, Nouriel calls for a deep two year recession, but sees some recovery by 2010 - but with unemployment reaching around 9%.

Thanks micromacro101.

Nicholas lays out the current situation with amateur landlords entering the market as buildings finish with lots of supply.

There are lots of new luxury buildings finishing or just completed with luxury suites available to rent in downtown Vancouver.  Because of this, rental rates are now down from around $2.50 sq/ft per month to around $2 sq/ft.

I enjoy hearing Nicholas' perspective on the Vancouver market, but this time he was pretty downbeat.  Enjoy the holidays Nicholas.  As you said, right now with the weather and the holidays, the rental business is in a slow period anyway.  We'll see what all these new amateur landlords do to the rental market in the spring.

It almost looks like crookery, the smooth salesmanship of some of these financial agencies, right up until the end of the game.

As Peter Schiff says, the economic growth is a phony function of borrowing and spending, not production and saving.  Millions of homeowners were acting like they won the lottery, an orgy of spending would all be taken care of by the continuation of a "wealth effect" based on a rising tide of home equity.  No thought was given to the borrowing necessary by purchasers to fund this absurd cartoon of an economy, and the consequences for borrowers being caught out of pocket.  Aren't there an infinite supply of greater fools, always waiting to jump in?

Hmm, seems not.

As Nouriel Roubini remarks, this consumption binge was fueled by withdrawals from millions of housing ATMs.  Funny thing about an ATM, it doesn't give you any money when you are overdrawn.

Yes, I'm looking at some old videos today, and I have to say, for a video only two months old, could Cameron Muir's spin be any more wrong?  Nope, don't think so....

This posting is a bit late here at Cheaprealty, as it was posted on Youtube around 3 weeks ago.  However, listening to Nicholas Meyer discuss how the dominos will fall, and how that could effects the Vancouver rental market, is illuminating.  Since affordability is out of whack, while at the same time supply far out-strips demand, rental prices have to go down.  The result is falling prices in the near future in both the rental and the resale markets.

Just like some real estate bears have commented on various blogs, Nicholas references the volume of rental listings on Craigslist to illustrate how real estate investments that didn't work out as planned, are now turning up in the rental stock.

Good points and worth considering.  Thanks CoalHarbourVancouver.

An investigative piece on the second wave of mortgage problems on the horizon, which generally involves more affluent buyers who took on interest only or adjustable mortgages, and doing so they took on too much debt, all based on the now foolish assuption that housing prices would just keep going up, well... forever.

The unwinding of this second wave of housing loans is another body blow to the US housing market, still on its way back down to historical norms.

This "Months Of Inventory" (MOI) snapshot was based on MLS searches done for the VREB area on December 12, 2008.

There were 1320 single family home listed today. There were 1093 condos and 417 townhouses available, along with 290 million dollar plus properties.  

Is there a bump in determined buying activity?  Looking at the decreasing numbers, maybe that is happening, a bit.  However, that's still a lot of inventory to absorb before the next bunch hits the market in the spring.  What's gonna happen?

For comparison, check out the last inventory search here.  

This "Months Of Inventory" (MOI) snapshot was based on MLS searches done for the VREB area on December 12, 2008.

There were 1320 single family home listed today. There were 1093 condos and 417 townhouses available, along with 290 million dollar plus properties.  

Is there a bump in determined buying activity?  Looking at the decreasing numbers, maybe that is happening, a bit.  However, that's still a lot of inventory to absorb before the next bunch hits the market in the spring.  What's gonna happen?

For comparison, check out the last inventory search here.  

Recently
Bill Shatner was invited to Seattle Washington and he took some of his
family and a camera from "The Shatner Project" along for a unique
perspective into what happens when a celebrity decides to visit a
public market (Pikes Market)to have a look around.

--Press Release

Ian Watt shows a condo in the dark, 'cause the previous homeloaner skipped out without paying the electric bill.  A $700,000 condo marked down and now on the market for $499,000 - yet this news story goes on to say that this is the first time people have just gotten up and walked away, leaving everything.  Yes, this is the first time foreclosures have started to get out of control like this in BC, according to the report.

Obviously the reporter never lived anywhere near a resource town during the downturn back in the '80s.  Hundreds of homeowners walked away in Port Alberni and other forestry communities in the past.  What about Tumbler Ridge, Kimberley or Gold River?  How about Lake Cowichan?  What about Sandspit or Prince Rupert?

Nouriel Roubini mentions Canada, and talks about the risks of deflation and whether it can be avoided as interest rates head down towards zero around the globe.  In the short term, Nouriel says a recession is inevitable in 2009 - the question is, how bad will it be, and will the globe escape a depression?  The danger is a global tsunami of foreclosures.  For this, debts must be reduced, not just mortgage rates.

Ozzie touts the way to sell even in a bad time.  He holds out hopes to sellers that buyers at this time of year are "serious buyers", like the same serious buyers weren't around in any other year.  Hey, there's ten serious buyers and 20,000 properties for sale.  Party on Garth.  Hey bake some cookies and use the happy smell wafting through the house to motivate the buyers.   Get a realtor who isn't gone skiing, like, who doesn't have money to go skiing maybe.

And what's happening in 2009?  Ozzie acknowleges bad news is all around, but calls for a sideways moves in the local markets, with maybe a 10% drop.  Huh?  The market dropped more than 10% last month!  Is the bottom just a month away Ozzie?

Going downhill skiing might not be so bad, since everything else is going downhill, anyway.

This "Months Of Inventory" (MOI) snapshot was based on MLS searches done for the VREB area on December 4, 2008.

There were 1341 single family home listed today. There were 1109 condos and 431 townhouses available, along with 299 million dollar plus properties.  That's the first time less than 300 "million dollar plus properties" has shown up in my searches since early May 2008.

Looks like the seasonal drop off in listings is now well under way.  Already down 179 listings since my last tally - somehow I doubt a sudden buying spree accounts for the difference.  Happily, overall MOI for VREB improved to a stellar 11.52 M.O.I.  Woo-hoo!

Kind of a Peter Schiff "Greatest Hits".  For anyone who remembers K-Tel Records, this one's for you.

Thanks schiff2012.

This "Months Of Inventory" (MOI) snapshot was based on realtor.ca searches done for the VREB area on December 1, 2008.

There were 1417 single family home listings. Condo inventory is at 1197. There are 446 townhouses available along with 313 million dollar plus properties.

As expected, sales in November were even lower than October.  Condo prices took a big dive, but medians for single family homes held up on very low volume.

Its impossible yet to say how many months of million dollar plus inventory are out there, as this stat was not reported by VREB.  Maybe there were no million dollar sales?  Anyway, I'll check the detailed report at mid-month, and report the stat when its available.  At this point, let's just consider that there is way too much of that inventory.