CMHC Says that 25% are going to be downsizing
Ian Watt has some interesting blogs from time to time, but it sounds like he only gets half the equation here - he heard what he wanted to hear, because he's trying to sell condos. If the majority of empty nesters are downsizing -- WHO IS GOING TO BUY THOSE BIG HOUSES AT PREMIUM PRICES?
It's clear from the stats thrown out there by Ian referencing CMHC there are nowhere near the number of first time buyers necessary to absorb that inventory, and even if the numbers were right, that set up is all wrong. First time buyers generally don't start into the market buying the biggest most expensive properties available.
Good for Ian for getting out there with a talking point a few times a week, but his take on the Vancouver CMHC stats is just wrong. Realtor speak, or rose coloured glasses - you decide.
For anyone curious, I posted something about this demographic shift courtesy of a US Federal Reserve study from back in 2005. Check out the link here.
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As I understand it there is a HUGE demographic of down-sizing condo-buyers...wow...
(now I'm not very good at math) BUT...if 5% of people are "looking" and 69% have equity (and therefore have something to buy with) that would be 3.45% ...and if 25% of them are down-sizing (and therefore looking for condos specifically)
Wouldn't that be .86% (?) he's right...
less than 1% are right now looking to buy a condo...wow!
numbers are all hypothetical anyway...but very impressive...hmmmn
So less than 1% of the population are empty nesters with equity looking to buy condos.
Wow, sounds like all that condo inventory in Vancouver and Victoria is just fiction - how could it possibly exist, with so many boomers yuppies empty nesters and millionaire foreigners looking for a Canadian real estate haven?
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