Happy New Year - What will 2008 bring?

Inner Harbour and Legislature at the Holidays

Not to steal directly from HHV, but I thought I would make some predictions for 2008. In most of the rest of the US and Canada, this probably sounds funny, but some people expect big things to continue in the year ahead in the Victoria market. CMHC are calling for 6% to 8% gains in Victoria in 2008.

Just once I'd like someone to supply a workable thesis to explain the divergence year after year from this level of housing appreciation and the core inflation rate. I mean, how can inflation run at 3-4%, while wages increase even slower than that, while runaway house appreciation continues far beyond the a bility of the marketplace to sustain based on incomes and wages?

Yes immigration, except there hasn't been that much, yes rich foreigners, yes they're very noticeable everywhere I go, yes parents supporting their kin, hmm, don't forget the boomers needing second and third homes....

I'll stick with my previous predictions. Summer 2007 was a high water mark. I expect the market down around 10% by next fall, and for it to then go lower still.

Feel free to disagree.

Anyway, Happy New Year. Here's to whatever 2008 brings!

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