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The Victoria area single family median reached an all-time high of $536,000 in December 2007, and at the moment, when comparing MLS listing prices to this new high median, there are far more properties available above the median than below it.

As of January 14, 2008, there were around 196 single family homes valued at less than $536,000.00 listed on the MLS in the VREB area. At the same time, there were 414 single family homes listed with asking prices above the median.

Based on an MLS search today relative to the December 2007 median prices, sales below the median are not absorbing new 2008 inventory completely. Sales above the median price have not even dented the inventory of high priced homes yet.

Looking at how many single family homes were over/under median prices was such an interesting exercise, I extended the investigation to the condo and townhouse markets. And I think I may have discovered something about the current state of the Victoria condo market, which is not yet obvious with the euphoria of the spring selling season just around the corner. The truth is, if you are asking over the median price for a condo, you already have a lot of other competition from other sellers.

The December median condo price in the VREB area was approximately $293,000. Today there were only 156 condos listed for sale below this median price. At the same time, there were 588 condos listed with prices over the median price. As the median is the point at which half the sales meet, it would appear that above the median, there is triple the inventory chasing around half the buyers.

When I looked at townhouses, the situation was similar. The median price for a townhouse in December 2007 was approximately $388,000. As of today there were only 57 townhouses priced below the median, while there were 156 listed above it.

Some places close to the medians for all property types may sell for a bit more or less than their listing prices, but except in a sharply rising or dropping market, this effect should have a negligible effect on the basic premise, which is that above the medians, there are far fewer buyers chasing far more properties.

It would seem some Victoria sellers are pricing themselves out of the market. As we watch these numbers over time, let's come to a basic understanding: the housing market in Victoria depends on local buyers - and it is now getting far too expensive for most locals, even highly paid professionals could not in most cases hope to purchase the homes they have resided in for years now. Certainly, by and large, their children have no hope to do so en masse when their baby boomer parents depart the scene.

It seems that maybe these affordability issues are starting to have an effect, since the segment where inventory is not building up for all three property types, is in the sub median price segment.

Is this a hot market? I don't think so. It looks to me like the fabled condo glut is building up that signals and precipitates every housing crash, unreported or even unbeknownst to some of the local market participants.

Well, not entirely unreported. Let's look at where these numbers are at the end of the month, to get a better picture of the situation. Will a condo glut crush the market?

Maybe its not that bad. Maybe I'm misreading the whole situation. Maybe.