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Here is another update comparing the months of inventory (MOI) based on February 2008 numbers vs average sales from the three months of February 2008 and March and April 2007. This gives a better estimate of months of inventory going forward, considering listings as well as sales tend to pick up at this time of year.

I expect sales numbers to be lower this month (March 2008) compared to last year (March 2007).

Affordability must still be an issue, because the only bracket with any obvious shortage of homes and little change is the sub-median single family home bracket.  Listings are skewed again above the median for all property types, and so are the months of inventory.

I have taken the advice of awum given on the previous entry, and will be rolling the results of the search for townhouses in with a search for duplex and triplex units, and presenting those numbers as the townhouse numbers on these tables going forward.

Previous results shown in earlier graphs were for townhouses only and therefore you will see a jump in these numbers.  Based on my old search criteria, currently there are 77 townhouses for sale below the median price, and 189 for sale above the median, so even using the old metric, the MOI for townhouses has increased.

At the top of the price ladder, million dollar plus listings continue to pile up. At present, there are 256 such properties listed on the VREB area of the MLS.  Based on the February 2008 sales of such properties, that is 25 months of listings. Even based on the December and January sales, which were around 19 per month, there is now around 13.5 months of inventory. Looking back at some good months in the past year, where around 25-30 such properties would sell, the MOI now sits at 8.5 months plus.  That would be a best case scenario, with no additional expensive properties being added to the inventory. 

Again, when does the million dollar house become the $900,000 house, and so on?

Now, for predictions and guesstimates.  If the spring was hot, I think you would see inventory going down, not up.  While I won't predict a month to month drop from last months unit sales, I will predict a year over year drop for all property types.  As to million dollar properties, I do not expect to see much improvement this month either. For single family homes, will the drop in average price trend continue?  I'm not sure that will happen, but I do expect the median price to be lower than last month. 

Current median prices in the VREB area are $543,500 (sfh), $395,000 (th) and $299,450 (condo).

The recent average single family home (sfh) price trend in VREB:

December 2007 - $624,450.

January 2008 - $606,449.

February 2008 - $587,295.

March 2008 - ???

What are your predictions for the March madness?  New VREB numbers are due out next Tuesday, April 1, 2008. 

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In other news and one opinion, CIBC is facing a whopping 25 billion dollars of exposure to monoline insurers, some of which are not rated AAA.  What happens if depositors get nervous about all this exposure and start moving to other banks?  Hmmm, can you say Northern Rock?  Which is being nationalized.  I knew you could.... 

Meanwhile, in Victoria, the tourism business had increased hotel revenue last year even though the number of visitors was down.  The officials responsible remain guardedly optimistic, and of course, don't mention the blight of homelessness and begging downtown.  Ah, the optimism of a tourist economy, impervious because it is different here. 

Finally, here is an interesting story on modular homes.  Everything that was old is new again.