MOI - VREB inventory increasing - 27/04/08
Another "Months Of Inventory" (MOI) snapshot, based on MLS searches done April 27, 2008.
More inventory, that's simple, the general tendency of more expensive houses to appear on the market continues - the disproportionate growth of listings occurs at the top of the market.
The total number of condos for sale on the MLS (1021) has increased a bit since April 22, 2008.
More townhouses are also available.
Million dollar plus inventory is growing - there were 301 such properties for sale in the VREB area on April 27, 2008. A full 15 months of inventory. Doesn't that number alone guarantee price cuts at the top of the market?
It seems some of these expensive properties haven't sold yet, I wonder why?
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I was surprised to read that Victoria has 15 Months worth of supply in the million dollar + range.
In looking at the Nanaimo market there are several homes in the North End, water front, priced from 1-1.3 mil that appear to have been cycling on and off the market for the past 2-3 years. At the rate of sales I have witnessed I can only recall less than 10 of these properties selling in the last 3 years.
However, prices have not fallen in other categories where inventory has been turning over fairly regularly with the exception of the last 3 or 4 months. I suspect that the sellers of these million dollar plus properties feel justified asking x amount more than non water front properties. The term I have heard used to describe this is price compression. Whereby more outlying areas will see a greater drop and start to slide sooner than centers such as Victoria or Vancouver, and higher priced properties will see a ceiling and stagnate sooner as well.
If Victoria has 15 months supply I hesitate to guess what the supply is here in Nanaimo!
As the slide begins I would expect these properties will have a much greater drop in percentage terms than lower priced properties.
It appears to finally be getting interesting.
Thanks again Greg.
VREB stats for April are now available here A graphical analysis of the VREB data is in a slideshow @ VREB Stats Analysis Use the Pause and Single Step Buttons instead of autoplay.
The VREB single family home data, published on their website, includes waterfront and acreage sales. When I receive the complete VREB report that has a more detailed breakdown (as used by CMHC) I will update the CMHC slideshow in the gallery.
Median and average sales numbers only tell part of the story. I will be interested to see what you folks think after you look at all the data in the slideshow.