MOI - VREB search - 16/07/08
By Greg - Posted on July 16th, 2008
This "Months Of Inventory" (MOI) snapshot was based on MLS searches done for the VREB area on July 16, 2008.
Single family home listings total 1443. Condo inventory is up
to 1229. 426 townhouses are available now. Million dollar plus listings now total 17 months of inventory, based on the 21 sales in June 2008. There are currently 357 miilion dollar plus properties listed.
For comparison, check out the previous inventory search here.
• 
• 
• 
• 
• 474 reads
| |
Copyright © 2006–2008 by
clickcampaign marketing.
Some Rights Reserved.
Copyright Policy and Terms.
Designated trademarks and brands are the property of their respective owners.
Greg,
I was surprised when i read that you counted 21 sales over $1M.. I thought that the lower average sales price for June might have been due to fewer high end sales. Now we see that this was not the case and that the drop in average price was due to lower sales prices in all ranges. That is good news for bears.
I have seen lots and lots of reduction on PCS in all price ranges and categories (SFH, towns, and condos). There have also been a number of big haircuts as well. Many houses are only being sold after one or more price reductions. The bulls are not going to like the July numbers and three monthly price drops in a row will be hard to brush off!!
Hope to see you at the beer party tomorrow.
Hey Roger,
not that 21 million dollar plus listings are that that many fewer than the 28 that sold in May or the 24 that sold in April, but I can't get over how low those numbers are compared to the number of listings in that bracket. I know selling expensive homes takes time, but a 17 month inventory? That is awfully grim for those trying to sell these properties. After all, million dollar plus listings creep higher and higher, doesn't it seem likely that some of these sellers are going to have to start lowering prices in big chunks pretty soon?
My PCS is focused more on low end markets in Victoria and east Saanich, but even there I'm seeing some drops.
Also, gone to a few open houses recently. Its funny, the more I go to the less inclined I am to buy - really, with everything that's out there and the prices sellers are still acting, there's just no reason at all to get in before the first dead cat bounce.
On the beer tomorrow, I haven't heard back from hhv yet on the location, so I might not be there. If you want to use my contact form for the web-site to send the location, I'll try to stop by.
Greg,
I sent you an email this morning. Check your spam filter if you don't have it by now.
Roger
I think a lot of the $million+ inventory is not distressed sales by any means, sure there might be the odd divorce or death or financial trouble but I imagine the vast majority are just rich folk trying to cash out at the high water mark. If their place doesn't sell they are no worse off, they will simply hold their price till it sells or eventually withdraw from the market. Most are probably thinking they would like to downsize at some point as they are boombers entering their "empty nest" period. They don't NEED the money from the sale of their home but it would be nice, as it might mean retiring a year or two earlier. My parents and most of their friends are in this boat, they all like house hunting, going to open houses etc. They dont need to sell, it's just a hobby.
I think you're right about some of those sellers, but it can't be all. And with all those houses on the market, that's still 17 months of inventory getting in the way of people who do need to sell soon.
For example, there are about 350 such properties on the market and in June 21 sold. Let's be charitable and say 75% of these people don't need to sell, so 15 of those sales were for people who could have withdrawn from the market
Applying the same metric, lets take the 5-6 that sold that really did have to sell - maybe an estate etc...
Well, if only 85-90 houses on the market in this expensive bracket are from people who have to sell - and only 5-6 sold in this group, and the other 15 or so went in the "don't need to sell" bracket, doesn't it stand to reason that there is still a huge overhang of sellers to buyers in the most vulnerable section of the high priced market?
And of course, it is the distressed sellers who have to sell who will be driving the market lower, not well off boomers who decide to stay in their homes and wait.
i think you are underestimating the urge of many boomers to get out from under the million dollar plus empty nest.
there may not be any IMMEDIATE pressure to sell but the idea of having way too much capital tied up in a big home and the responsibility of maintaining it makes downsizing look more attractive as time passes. dont forget that the first boomers are just starting to get into their 60s and the flood hasnt really started.
and who are the buyers going to be? not other boomers and the young population certainly cant afford it-or even want it. some big places will be divided into multiple dwellings -thats already happening somewhat--but I think the big oak bay mansion is looking pretty white-elephantish and will get more so.
IMHO this price downturn is not a part of a short term cycle where prices will start heading back up after a cooling off period--
if you are thinking in terms of using your massive home equity for retirement-better to get in there with an aggressive selling price NOW-the sale will look real good tomorrow
the demographics indicate to me that segment of the market aint coming back near current levels any time soon
I can relate exactly to what metaldwarf just said - I have a family member with a very nice property in the ~2M range, and she is listed just simply to see if someone will buy it. She even knows it's listed high now, and she's very real estate savvy. She's in absolutely no hurry to sell... if she can cash out, great... if not, she'll enjoy having the family visit and hang out there, just like we always have done, for the next 5+ years.
So there's at least one high end seller that matches what metaldwarf described :)
Hey womp, I sort of agree with some of what you are saying.
When the market was bouyant and people like your relative listed properties on fishing expeditions and then they sold, that was the air that filled the balloon lifting the rising market.
Now, it will be people who have to and who do sell who will set the tone for the market on the way down. Your relative can list her property potentially for too much and let it sit, but that won't have much effect, except to skew the months of inventory numbers and make them look even worse.
In fact, even with those sellers removed from the market, the amount of expensive property available is now far greater than the current sales can absorb -the total MOI has been rising now for months.
I'm looking forward to the downward pressure on prices this can bring. While anecdotes about relatives who don't need to sell would seem to mitigate against this pressure, I don't think it does. Those sellers are not really in the market, at least not seriously.
Kind of like me as a buyer. When I look at what is happening, even though I am looking at houses, I can't say it is a very serious search at the moment, either.
My comments primarly refered to boomers who are the largest percentage owners of million dollar plus properties. You dont mention if your family member is in that category.
I obviously dont know her specific financial or other circumstances, but if she is of the boomer age, i would guess that her nonchalance about selling will decrease as those 5 years go by.She has after all got it on the market, albeit at a high price
As charming as im sure you and the rest of the womp family are, eventually shes going to wonder about the wisdom of tying up 2 million or so bucks in a (usually) empty nest--and the work involved in maintaining it.
I think the Victoria big expensive home exits may get increasingly crowded as boomers start celebrating their 60ths en masse ,and i dont see a large group of buyers being there to help them into retirement in the next 5 years.
The current 17 months of over 1 million dollar priced inventory is not an environment for rising or even stable prices,so unless $ really just dont matter, get the asking price down to a realistic level. That sale-if there is one- will look real good later.
ALL in my humble opinion only ,
cheers!
I'll be there, looking forward to it....
Post new comment