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This "Months Of Inventory" (MOI) snapshot was based on MLS searches done for the VREB area on May 13, 2008.

There were 1237 single family homes listed at the moment.

The sub-median single family homes inventory increased a bit more. The "most affordable" sector of the single family market continues building inventory instead of shedding it.

Million dollar plus property inventory increased again. Today there were 301 such properties listed.

Blogs are talking about recessions and inflation and popping bubbles. Is the global economic slowdown starting to take effect yet in the Victoria real estate market? Have the last of the first time buyers and hardiest of the foreign investors finally been knocked out of the picture?

What's next?

Another "Months Of Inventory" (MOI) snapshot, based on MLS searches done May 8, 2008, compared to the April 2008 VREB numbers.

The total number of condos for sale on the MLS (1099) has increased quite a bit since May 1, 2008.

More townhouses (416) are available. More single family homes (1192). The MOI for sub-median single family homes has even increased a bit, to 2 months or so. The fact this "most affordable" sector of the single family market is actually building inventory instead of shedding or absorbing it is an interesting signal, but does it actually mean anything?

A new "Months Of Inventory" (MOI) snapshot, based on MLS searches done May 1, 2008, and the April 2008 VREB numbers.

Along with the higher median single family home prices in the month of April, inventory is up in all segments. Meanwhile, the median prices of condos and townhouses have fallen a bit, and sales in these segments are not on pace with those of 2007.

Another "Months Of Inventory" (MOI) snapshot, based on MLS searches done April 27, 2008.

More inventory, that's simple, the general tendency of more expensive houses to appear on the market continues - the disproportionate growth of listings occurs at the top of the market.

The total number of condos for sale on the MLS (1021) has increased a bit since April 22, 2008.

More townhouses are also available.

Million dollar plus inventory is growing - there were 301 such properties for sale in the VREB area on April 27, 2008.  A full 15 months of inventory. Doesn't that number alone guarantee price cuts at the top of the market?

It seems some of these expensive properties haven't sold yet, I wonder why?

"Months Of Inventory" (MOI) for the VREB area, based on MLS searches of listings April 22, 2008.

Was the previous inventory jump an anomaly, or do the drops we see this time reflect a change of the trend?

The above median single family home listings have dropped from 913 to 824, since the last time I checked on April 16, 2008. The overall number is still up from where it was on April 10, 2008.

The total number of condos for sale on the MLS (1006) has also declined quite a bit since April 16, 2008.

"Months Of Inventory" (MOI) for the VREB area, based on MLS searches of listings April 16, 2008.

The biggest jump has been the above median single family home market, going from 791 to 913 listings in just under a week.

According to at least one realtor source, there are now 4000+ listings in the VREB area.

Interestingly, the total number of condos for sale on the MLS (1080) has declined a little bit since April 10, 2008, at the same time the percentage of above median listings has decreased while sub median listings have jumped - from 304 to 329. So condos appear to be getting cheaper.

Townhouses? This is a market segment where the inventory just keeps growing.

Here is another "months of inventory" (MOI) snapshot of the VREB area
of the MLS, based on searches of the listings April 10, 2008. Inventory has jumped since a couple days ago in the single family home segment. but in the other two segments it has actually dropped a little bit.

The trend with expensive (million dollar plus) properties not being
absorbed continues, with another 12 or so added in the last few days. There are now more than 14 months of expensive property to be absorbed on the market, which is becoming more top heavy daily.

Here is another "months of inventory" (MOI) snapshot of the VREB area of the MLS, based on searches of the listings April 7, 2008; as you can see, inventory continues to grow, but not at a very fast pace. Will this trend accelerate or slow down in the next few months? I am of the opinion that this will determine the trend for the remainder of the year. Price pressure will not happen at the lower end of the market until more inventory arrives.

Single family homes below median are still in short supply. On the positive side, even with a lower median than a month ago, it looks like more single family homes are being priced "realistically". The situation with condos continues to get worse.

Are you aware of any projects being cancelled or prices being slashed by developers? If so, post the info here. Thanks.

Also, you can check out what is being said about some of these projects over at Vibrant Victoria here. 

Well, some interesting tid-bits from the March VREB numbers. For one thing, if you subtract 12 million dollar waterfront listings from the monthly sales totals, what would the average price in Victoria be for a single family home? Around $566,000. An astronomical sum, to be sure, if not playing with paper equity and two mortgage helpers as "money" -- but less than the official average of $597,176, which represented a modest rebound from the February average of $587,295, and stemmed a 3 month decline in the average price of single family homes.

The single family home median was much lower than the average, and lower than the previous month's median - clocking in at $529,625, compared to $543,500 the month before. This is essentially unchanged from January 2008, when it was $530,200, and December 2007, when it was $536,000.

Here is another update comparing the months of inventory (MOI) based on February 2008 numbers vs average sales from the three months of February 2008 and March and April 2007. This gives a better estimate of months of inventory going forward, considering listings as well as sales tend to pick up at this time of year.

I expect sales numbers to be lower this month (March 2008) compared to last year (March 2007).

Affordability must still be an issue, because the only bracket with any obvious shortage of homes and little change is the sub-median single family home bracket.  Listings are skewed again above the median for all property types, and so are the months of inventory.

I have taken the advice of awum given on the previous entry, and will be rolling the results of the search for townhouses in with a search for duplex and triplex units, and presenting those numbers as the townhouse numbers on these tables going forward.