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These comparisons are based on the December 2007 VREB numbers. January 2008 numbers will be out soon.

So today for the heck of it I did another quick snapshot search of the MLS, to see how things are shaping up for listings vs median prices - what's happening, where is the inventory building up so far this year? Over or under? Unsurprisingly, again it seems a pattern continues with lots of homes available above the median prices ($536,000 or so), with fewer cheaper homes available. On a related note, listings of all types of million dollar plus properties are also still increasing.

Consider the single family home average price chart for Victoria, which shows increases in nominal prices over the years. The graph looks incredibly like a hockey stick, up to the end of 2007. And now, it seems that houses are selling below the median rate far more easily. Could that be a sign that affordability issues are starting to affect the market?

On Friday January 25, 2008, there were 192 million dollar plus properties for sale on the MLS in the VREB area. Based on the level of sales seen in November and December 2007 according to VREB, that is now almost a year's worth of expensive inventory. Any uptake in sales activity has so far failed to stem the ballooning of that particular market segment. Million dollar penthouses, anyone?

Meanwhile, for single family homes, the search found 472 single family homes for sale with prices above the median, while only 201 single family homes were for sale with prices below the median.

Condos, ouch, don't let this top secret information escape to the public, there might be a sudden panic among the presellers!

There were only 184 condos priced below the median price ($293,000), with a staggering 742 listed for sale with prices above - a jump of around 200 listings from just a couple weeks ago.

Meanwhile, townhouse inventoriess, with a median around $388,000 also increased, but not nearly as much. There were 58 Townhouses listed at prices below the median, with 176 priced above.

I think I am detecting a trend. In the spring optimistic sellers all think their houses are worth more than the average property. Why not? History has taught them that any old POS is worth hundreds of thousands, why should this spring be any different?

Still, that's a lot of condos to be listed this early in the year. Is this the beginning of the fabled condo glut? If so, what do you think that means?

How about some comments and discussion on what is happening in the market? IF HHV and Prairie Boy can get over 100 comments per topic, can't I get at least 5 or so? Is this stuff worth reading or valuable, or just too obvious? I don't know. Anyway, it seems to me that the condo glut has begun and I would be interested to hear any anecdotal evidence that supports or disproves that.

How are those presales at Bear Mountain going these days, anyway?

Yes, even I think about buying some day. After waiting a few years for a correction, it gets a bit depressing sometimes considering these unstoppable housing trends. At other times, like maybe now, the trends almost seem in my favour. That's tantalizing. Or maybe just too personal.

Meanwhile, I still have family members telling me buy anyway, anyhow, because "You can't lose in the long run."

Funny how most people say that but the same people still want to make money on real estate in the short run, too.