divergence
Snapshot of Victoria Inventory #1
Here is a little chart based on some searches I have been doing on the MLS in the local market area. Over the past 10 months or so I have been checking the MLS for total listings available and writing down the results based on property type.
This is a sort of snapshot of inventory available at any particular time - the data does not show sales, but rather property that has not sold yet, or which may never sell. The higher these numbers get relative to actual monthly sales for the various types of residential property, the more likely we will see price drops in the future - because a divergence between increased listing and decreased sales activity cannot continue indefinitely.
Not surprisingly, inventory has not increased greatly in this period, just steadily - probably a reason why property prices have skirted with all-time highs recently, while a housing crash is already underway elsewhere.
Inventory, not prices, is the real story.
Here is a portion of the inventory chart from the Victoria Real Estate Board site, which can be found by visiting here. As you can see, inventory is on a big upswing at the moment, with the trend clearly pointing to a growing divergence between sales and units available on the market.
The conditions of a few years ago, when scarce inventory was snapped up immediately, leading to the biggest jump in prices of the last few years, no longer exists.
As prices continue to rise, it seems that with more choice, buyers are still paying a premium, but now they can be choosy. And for all the other people listing their properties without success?
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