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Here is another update comparing the months of inventory (MOI) based on February 2008 numbers vs average sales from the three months of February 2008 and March and April 2007. This gives a better estimate of months of inventory going forward, considering listings as well as sales tend to pick up at this time of year.

I expect sales numbers to be lower this month (March 2008) compared to last year (March 2007).

Affordability must still be an issue, because the only bracket with any obvious shortage of homes and little change is the sub-median single family home bracket.  Listings are skewed again above the median for all property types, and so are the months of inventory.

I have taken the advice of awum given on the previous entry, and will be rolling the results of the search for townhouses in with a search for duplex and triplex units, and presenting those numbers as the townhouse numbers on these tables going forward.

Okay, this time I thought I'd try something different, like comparing the months of inventory based on February 2008 numbers vs average sales from the three months of February 2008 and March and April 2007. This gives a better estimate of months of inventory (MOI) on hand going forward, based on no additional listings to speak of piling on and a pick-up in sales.

Frankly, I expect sales numbers to be lower this year, so these numbers are probably a bit better than they will look in another few months, but let's work with them.

As you can see, the impression of a hot market continues to burn at the bottom of the affordability bracket. Listings are skewed above the median prices for all property types, and so are the months of inventory above the medians. Looking at the three month average, things look a bit better, but of course looking at the numbers on a month to month basis going forward should yield a different and not so nice result, unless of course unit sales this year exceed last year, which so far they are not on track to do. Months of inventory are rising in all above median brackets, however you look at the numbers.

Well, chalk up some more million dollar + inventory. A few days go by, and another few properties are added to the waiting list. The inventory of single family homes increased as well. Over 8 months of "above median" condo inventory is now listed, based on the February 2008 VREB stats. This is March, shouldn't buyers be taking up the slack by now?

I see over at Rob Chipman's site his most recent report of price changes was that 90% + of all changes were reductions. Also, the average list price in Chipman's area was $556,677, while the average sale price was $548,169, a difference of $8,508, or 1.53%. Which is lower. Is that a hot market? I know Vancouver and Victoria are not the same place, but I would assume that Victoria is not the tail that wags the dog--but rather, the opposite is about to occur.

That is to say, when prices in Vancouver start falling due to the mother of all condo gluts, all outlying areas, including Victoria, are going to get slammed.

But perhaps you disagree?

Well, what is there to add?

Two months ago, 19 million dollar plus properties sold. Last month only ten. Is it a glitch or an alarming sign that the top is in?

Can anyone selling a million dollar plus property in Victoria ignore 1-2 years of months of inventory (MOI)? Does the million dollar house become the $900,000 house, and so on?

This table shows the disconnect between the top and bottom of the VREB housing market. Months of inventory are already much higher at the top of the market than the bottom for all property types. Is affordability finally having an effect? Is it the credit crunch, are humongous mortgages now too difficult to get?

Or has all the smart money headed to the sidelines?

Predictions of blogging real estate bulls notwithstanding, this is not a market poised for a strong spring season.

As noted by Rob Chipman, the majority of recent price changes in his market area in Greater Vancouver (around 85%) have been price reductions.

I did a search for condos in the VREB area of the MLS (2008/02/23). Today there were 1024 condos for sale!

Only 291 were listed below the January 2008 median price ($305,000), while 733 were more expensive. So only 28% of condos are currently listed below the most recent median price, while 72% are listed higher.

By the way, there were also 265 townhouses, and 880 single family homes
listed for sale as of February 23, 2008. Again, most are priced above the recent
median prices.

Only 272 single family homes were listed below the January 2008 median price
($530,000), while 608 were more expensive. So only around 31% of the single family homes currently listed were priced below the recent median price, while 69% were asking more.