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This is just a simple total: how many properties are available in various price ranges, regardless of property type, on a particular day, in the Victoria Real Estate Board area.

This graph shows the inventory available in a search of the local MLS on January 11, 2008. As you can see, the numbers of properties listed has dropped in many price ranges since the start of the year - particularly the more affordable price ranges. There are actually less properties listed now then there were 10 days ago. However, not all is great.

Continuing with a previous theme, there still are around 11 months of "million dollar plus" inventory on the market again, based on the sales levels for these types of homes the last few months. Inventory of "million dollar plus" properties remains at a high level relative to other price ranges. It will be interesting to compare whether any increase in this sales inventory is offset by a comparable increase in actual sales numbers by the end of the month. If the numbers don't align, it could signal a worsening of the glut at the top of the home market. Will these numbers go down, because if they don't, the local market has not shown the capability to produce large volumes of high priced sales. In which case, how long until impatient seller(s) drop prices down to price levels where there is more activity?

Tougher borrowing costs, more expensive properties, fewer first time buyers, less equity extraction, recessions brewing, baby boomers downsizing - it all looms on the horizon like a giant squall, but at this point the Victoria market continues sailing along. If not exactly hot, it's not cold, either. At this point - tepid?

Will spring sizzle? Hmmmm.

Lets see where the condo market goes in the next few months. I take the view that, despite downsizing boomers, any trouble will show up in the condo market first - if there is trouble.

Anyone bailing on $400,000 presales? Anyone unable to get financing to close deals on those half million dollar retirement condos?

Stay tuned. Your comments and opinions on these matters are welcome.