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Well the numbers are in. While adding them to my spreadsheet, I came across what seems to be an anomaly - a huge jump in the number of listed condos on the MLS. Since the MLS recently adopted a new search mechanism - assuming it is accurate - the only explanation I can find for this big jump in inventory is there must have been lots of condos added to the MLS recently.

I have been wondering for awhile why the condo inventory was essentially not budging upward, considering the number of units completed or nearing completion. Sales were not that much higher this year compared to last year, to be absorbing the difference. It looks like some of these new units are starting to enter the MLS system; therefore, we are seeing an accompanying spike in condo listings.

It should also be noted that at the cheaper end of the spectrum, a large number of fractional condo shares are now turning up in the searches. If anyone has any other theories or facts on this spike in inventory, I would be interested to hear them.

I'm inclined to treat these numbers as fairly accurate, despite the new search mechanism, because when the current listings are tallied and added to the June sales, the total is around 3500 - or very close to the total listings/sales for the month of June 2007 given by VREB.

For the first time since I began tracking these numbers, there are now more condos for sale than single family homes in Greater Victoria. Here are the inventory numbers for some of the property types listed on the MLS on July 3, 2007:

1109 single family homes

1186 condos

289 townhouses

19 multi-family homes

72 mobile homes

Total inventory currently listed as above: 2675.

Here is the breakdown of the sales activity, comparative to a year ago. Sales are up for all categories. In particular, townhouses seem to be doing better.

How to interpret these sales numbers? Well, they are definitely showing some strength in the single family home area, as the inventory of single family homes appears to be getting lower, while prices are still going higher. This is solid performance heading into the summer.

The situation with townhouses and condos is mixed. While prices were up for both property types, so were inventories. If the new MLS search component is to be trusted, the number of condos listed has taken a dramatic leap in the past few weeks.

I am still waiting to see the impact of higher rates, once pre-approvals at lower rates run out.

If inventory doesn't start to impact prices soon, I will have to recall my previous conclusions about an imminent top this summer, and maybe even eat my words.

Good luck with the market. Comments are welcome.